Last week it was reported that Saudi Arabia had begun a massive buildup of forces that will most likely use the Turkish-Syrian border for the launch of an offensive. RT reports…
“Saudi rulers have reportedly amassed a 150,000-strong army to invade Syria on the alleged pretext “to fight against terrorism” and to defeat the so-called Islamic State (also known as ISIS/ISIL). Saudi officials told CNN that in addition to Saudi troops there are ground forces from Egypt, Turkey, Sudan, Morocco, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.” -https://www.rt.com/op-edge/331648-saudi-invasion-syria-bluff/#.VreDrM0HRX0.facebook
It has now been announced by Brig. Gen. Ahmed Al-Assiri that the Saudi Armies’ plans to invade Syria and fight on behalf of the western coalition on the ground is final.This is a massively dangerous and provocative escalation in what is already a tinder box for global conflict. The implications would be increased pressure on Iran and Russia to step up its support for the Assad regime. The underlying issue of course runs deeper as Iran is a Shiite Muslim nation and Saudi Arabia is a Sunni majority. These factions of Islam have battled for control through the ages and the implications of the struggle still transfer to geopolitical conflicts today. Iran has been opposed to the Saudi/U.S./Israeli funded, and Sunni muslim group ISIS, from the beginning of the conflict by way of financial and military support for Assad’s forces. This invasion would put the warring factions at even closer odds and could invite a direct response from Iran’s Republican Guard.
Since Russian airstrikes and Intelligence support for the Syrian regime has helped turn the tide of the war since last September, the pressure has been on western coalition forces to find a way to salvage their mission of regime change and economic control in the region. Of course, Russia and Iran are protecting their interests and influence in Syria and it at this point seems like neither side is willing to back down from their goals. In fact,this latest intervention puts the onus back onto the eastern alliance to respond in kind, or acquiesce to a Saudi invasion of their ally. Will Iran send in conventional military units or simply increase financial and logistical support of Assad’s forces? Will Russia condemn the invasion and step up airstrikes, or will they in turn insert their own ground forces into the conflict?
In the coming weeks and months you may a see a public attempt at diplomatic resolutions and offerings of peace or negotiation between the Saudi coalition and the Russian leadership. I would take any such diplomacy with a large grain of salt. The interests of the participant nations, and alliances drawn, are clear. Any posturing of peace will at this point be a strategic ploy for time to position and train forces, gather intelligence, and devise a plan of response to the Saudi aggression.
This is not a positive development for the world nor for the prospect of an imminent peaceful end to the Syrian disaster. How this development will further entangle European and U.S forces remains to be seen, and will ultimately depend on the reaction of the Russians and Iranians. Of course with potential Iranian involvement, one must consider the prospect of an Israeli response, which would no doubt put massive pressure on the U.S. for stepped up military support. In short, we are playing with fire and this can easily escalate into a third world war by the years end. For the future of humanity and the world our children will inherit, let us pray it does not.
Notes:
-Saudi’s decsion to send troops into Syria ‘Final’ http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/02/11/Spokesman-Saudi-decision-to-send-troops-in-Syria-is-final.html
-Iranian Commander mocks offer of Saudi Arabia to intervene in Syria http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/06/middleeast/syria-civil-war-saudi-iran/
-Suadi Invasion of Syria: The Bluff that could ignite World War Three https://www.rt.com/op-edge/331648-saudi-invasion-syria-bluff/
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